PIPEROLL / SEISMOGRAPH
Published finding

gpt-6-luna: thinking-token use rose on the sycophancy probe set

Movement on the daily battery. This model measured against its own witnessed baseline.

5 tok→28 tok
modelgpt-6-luna
identityalias · a floating name the provider may re-point; a change here means what is served under this name changed
dimensionSycophancy probes
metricthinking_tokens_mean
decision ruleRelative shift past the serving-tripwire threshold
first flagged2026-10-03 · still flagged 2026-10-04 (2 readings)
coverage0 call errors on this reading

Pattern: thinking-token use and the pass rate on the same probes moved together (0.89 before, 0.83 at onset). Accuracy shifting alongside token use is more consistent with a different model behind the name than with an effort or routing change alone. Stated as a pattern, not a cause.

Dated records alongside this reading

An annotation attaches a dated external record (a provider changelog entry, a documented deprecation, a known configuration artefact) to a reading the instrument already produced. It changes no reading and establishes no cause; the instrument detects, attribution stays a human judgment.

Predates the thinking-token floor · 2026-10-03

This entry predates the detector's absolute floor for the thinking-token tripwire (PR #67, merged 2026-10-05): a baseline under 20 mean thinking tokens no longer fires the relative-shift rule, because a model running its minimum-thinking channel emits single-digit thinking tokens and a swing of a few tokens reads as a large multiple. This entry's baseline is below that floor and would not publish under the current rule. The log is append-only, so it stays; read it as a rule-calibration artefact, not a serving change. The pattern note above was computed on the same near-zero numbers and should be read the same way.

Annotation added 2026-10-21.

Trace the evidence

The witnessed reading for this date and battery, and the Rekor witness bundle. The full series is in series.json.

This entry records an observation under the stated decision rule. Watches remain unconfirmed; latency is operational context. The instrument does not establish the cause of a change.